cover omega2

The OMEGA 2 Project

Mega Projects and Mega Risks: Lessons for Decision-makers through a Comparative Analysis of Selected Large-scale Transport Infrastructure Projects in Europe, USA and Asia Pacific

The overarching research question posed by the OMEGA 2 Study was: what constitutes a successful MTP in light of the aims of such projects and the anticipated sustainable development challenges presented by the 21st Century?

This investigation went well beyond the conventional project management concerns of completing such projects ‘on time’, ‘on budget’ and ‘within prescribed specifications’ (often referred to as ‘Iron Triangle’ considerations of project management) important though these remain. The research was based on an international study of 30 selected MTPs costing in excess of US 1 billion (at 1999 rates) and completed post-1990 in Europe, USA, Australia and the Asia-Pacific region.  The research was undertaken in partnership with research teams in 9 universities (numbering approximately 35 researchers in total) from:

  • The University of Melbourne, Australia;
  • Ecole des Ponts Paris, France;
  • The Free University of Berlin, Germany;
  • The University of Thessaly, Greece;
  • Tokyo Institute of Technology, Japan;
  • The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR;
  • The University of Amsterdam, Netherlands;
  • Lund University, Sweden;
  • New York University, USA.

Complementing the overarching research question were two further key questions and three hypotheses which define the scope of the Study, as follows:

  • How well has risk, uncertainty and complexity been treated in the planning, appraisal and delivery of MTPs?
  • How important is context in making judgements regarding ‘success’ and the treatment of risk, uncertainty and complexity?

Research Hypotheses

  • Traditional criteria relating to cost overruns, completion dates, generation of travel time savings for project users and rates of returns to investors are inadequate measures of ‘success’ in the 21st century, as sustainable development concerns become increasingly critical both globally and locally.
  • The new emerging international and local agenda related to visions of sustainable development is multidimensional and goes beyond notions of environmental sustainability, as critical as this may be – it also concerns inter-related concepts of economic sustainability, social sustainability and institutional sustainability.
  • The level of competence in MTP decision-making in today’s fast-changing world is best assessed by the adequacy of the treatment of risk, uncertainty and complexity, plus sensitivity to context(s) – all of which constitute important demands on strategic planning and resilience.

In response to the above overarching research questions and hypotheses, the OMEGA 2 Study yielded a number of significant contributions to the field of MTP development which move significantly beyond the traditional concerns associated with  project performance. These contributions take the form of lessons and suggested stakeholder actions, which help better frame and define arenas of MTP activity. The UCL OMEGA Team consider that these lessons and actions should be placed at the heart of future decision-making of MTPs if projects are to meet the growing and changing 21st Century aspirations for achieving future sustainable economic, social, environmental and institutional development. The Final Report of this research programme was submitted to VREF in six volumes on 1 October 2011. An Executive Summary was published in December 2012.

Partnership Network

The OMEGA Centre International Partnership Network was founded in 2006 at the advent of the OMEGA 2 Project which sought to present generic lessons in decision-making in the planning, appraisal and delivery from a study of 30 MTP case studies in 10 countries in the Developed World. The Partnership Network comprised of nine very highly regarded academic institutions throughout the Developed World plus a Knowledge Management consultancy firm. Each University partner was led by a Principal Investigator (PI) in the form of a senior academic, supported by Research Assistants (many of the latter doubling-up as PhD students).  All Partners offered important links to other Universities and research institutions plus access to local public and private sector project stakeholders in their respective countries and beyond.

Principal Investigator

Prof. Nicholas Low

Australasian Centre for the Governance and Management of Urban Transport (GAMUT)

Faculty of Architecture, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne – AUSTRALIA

Research Fellow

Prof. Carey Curtis

Department of Planning and Geography

Curtin University of Technology, Perth – AUSTRALIA

Research Assistant

Dr. Sophie Sturup

Australasian Centre for the Governance and Management of Urban Transport (GAMUT)

Faculty of Architecture, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne – AUSTRALIA

Principal Investigator

Prof. Elisabeth Campagnac

Laboratoire Technique Territoires et Societes (LATTS)

Ecole Nationales Ponts et Chaussees, Paris – FRANCE

Research Fellow

Prof. Geneviëve Zembri

UFR Lettres et Sciences Humaines

Universitè de Cergy-Pontoise, Cergy-Pontoise – FRANCE

Research Assistant

Dr. Stèphanie Leheis

Laboratoire Technique Territoires et Societes (LATTS)

Ecole Nationales Ponts et Chaussees, Paris – FRANCE

Principal Investigator

Prof. Pantelis Skayannis

Department of Planning and Regional Development

University of Thessaly, Volos – GREECE

Research Assistant

George Kaparos

Department of Planning and Regional Development

University of Thessaly, Volos – GREECE

Principal Investigator

Prof. Yasunori Muromachi

Department of Built Environment

Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering

Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo – JAPAN

Research Fellows

Dr. Kazuya Itaya

Department of Built Environment

Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering

Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo – JAPAN

Dr. Yuko Ohtsuka

Department of Built Environment

Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering

Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo – JAPAN

Principal Investigator

Prof. Frederik Pretorius

Department of Real Estate and Construction

University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong – CHINA

Research Fellow

Prof. Mee Kam Ng

Department of Geography and Resource Management

The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong – CHINA

Research Assistants

Rachel Ng

Department of Real Estate and Construction

University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong – CHINA

Billy Kwan

Department of Real Estate and Construction

University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong – CHINA

Principal Investigator

Prof. Willem Salet

Amsterdam Institute for Metropolitan Studies

University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam – NETHERLANDS

Research Fellow

Prof. Luca Bertolini

Amsterdam Institute for Metropolitan Studies

University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam – NETHERLANDS

Research Assistant

Dr. Mendel Giezen

Amsterdam Institute for Metropolitan Studies

University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam – NETHERLANDS

Principal Investigator

Prof. Bengt Holmberg

Department of Technology and Society

Lund University, Lund – SWEDEN

Research Fellow

Prof. Jamil Khan

Department of Technology and Society

Lund University, Lund – SWEDEN

Research Assistant

Dr. Fredrik Pettersson

Department of Technology and Society

Lund University, Lund – SWEDEN

Study Director

Prof. Harry T. Dimitriou

OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning

University College London, London – UK

Senior Research Fellows

Philip G. Wright

OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning

University College London, London – UK

Dr. E. John Ward

OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning

University College London, London – UK

Rob Gallagher

OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning

University College London, London – UK

Administrator of the OMEGA Centre

Richard S. Oades

OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning

University College London, London – UK

Research Assistants

Yen-Ning Tseng

OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning

University College London, London – UK

Varina Delrieu

OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning

Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA)

University College London, London – UK

June Taylor

OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning

University College London, London – UK

Principal Investigator

Prof. Charles M. Brecher

University Transportation Research

New York University, New York – U.S.A.

Research Assistant

Dr. Patrizia Nobbe

University Transportation Research

New York University, New York City – U.S.A.

Director, Complexity Interest Group and Director, Cognitive Edge Pty.

David Snowden

Director of Cognitive Edge Pty.

Stephen Beiling

Consultant, Cognitive Edge Pty.

Ann Baritherwait

Sharon Darwent

Laurie Webster

Programmer, Cognitive Edge Pty.

Peter Stanbridge

Complexity Interest Group

Michael Cheveldave

Programmer, Complexity Interest Group

Ken McHugh

Data entry specialist, Complexity Interest Group

Jules Yim

Director of Research, Glamorgan University

Dr. Paul Thomas

OMEGA Case Studies

Journal articles

Harry T. Dimitriou, Nicholas Low, Sophie Sturup, Genevieve Zembri, Elisabeth Campagnac, George Kaparos, Pantoleon Skayannis, Yasunori Muromachi, Seiji Iwakura, Kazuya Itaya, Mendel Giezen, Luca Bertolini, Willem Salet, Jamil Khan, Fredrik Petterson, Bengt Holmberg, E. John Ward, Phil G. Wright, Harry T. Dimitriou, Harry T. Dimitriou (2014) ‘What constitutes a “successful” mega transport project?/Leadership, risk and storylines: The case of the Sydney Cross City Tunnel/The case of the LGV Méditerranée high speed railway line/Dealing with context and uncertainty in the development of the Athens Metro Base Project/What constitutes a “successful” mega transport project? Lessons from the Metropolitan Expressway in Tokyo/The RandstadRail project: A case study in decision-making strategies under uncertainty/Constructive conflicts in the case of the Öresund Link/Perspectives on “success” from the UK Channel Tunnel Rail Link Project/Some concluding remarks’, Planning Theory & Practice Vol. 15, Iss. 3, pp. 389-430

Dimitriou, H.T., E.J. Ward and P.G. Wright (2013) ‘Mega transport projects – beyond the ‘Iron Triangle’: Findings from the OMEGA research programme, Planning in Progress Journal, October, p56

Reports

Dimitriou, H.T., E.J. Ward and P.G. Wright (2012) Mega Projects Executive Summary – Lessons for Decision-maker: An Analysis of Selected International Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Projects, OMEGA Project 2, OMEGA Centre and VREF, Bartlett School of Planning, University College, London, December

Dimitriou, H.T., P.G. Wright and E.J. Ward (2011),  Mega Projects and Mega Risks:  Lessons for Decision-makers through a Comparative Analysis of Selected Large-scale Transport Infrastructure Projects in Europe, USA and Asia Pacific, Six Volumes of Final Report of a five year international research programme, OMEGA Centre, University College, London, September

Working Papers

Dimitriou, H.T. and E.J. Ward (2009) Towards Normative Criteria for the Assessment of MUTP Decision Making Under Risk, Uncertainty and Complexity and a Related Context Framework, OMEGA Centre Guidance Note, OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning, University College, London, July

Dimitriou, H.T. and P.G. Wright (2009) Bergek et al’s Analytical Framework of Functional Dynamics of Technological Innovation Systems: Proposal for application to mega transport projects as researched by the OMEGA Centre prepared by Phil Wright and Harry T. Dimitriou, OMEGA Guidance Note, 19th March, OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning, University College, London, June

Dimitriou, H.T. and P.G. Wright (2009) Outline Methodology for Completion of OMEGA Research Programme with Emphasis on Methodology to Undertake Comparative Analysis and Synthesis of Case Studies and Arrive at Lessons and Guidelines for Stakeholders, OMEGA Guidance Note, OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning, University College London, June

Dimitriou, H.T. and P.G. Wright (2008) Some Initial Thoughts on the Comparative Analysis and Synthesis of Case Study Findings and Questionnaire Returns, OMEGA Guidance Note, OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning, University College London, London, December

Omega Working Paper #1 Series (2007) An Historical and Contemporary Overview of the Main Policy, Planning and Funding Contexts for the Planning and Delivery of Major Transportation Projects Since the Second World War. OMEGA Project 2, OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning, University College London, London

Omega Working Paper #2 Series (2007) International Insights Into Selected Key Challenges Encountered by MUTPs When Pursuing Goals of Sustainable Development. OMEGA Project 2, OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning, University College London, London

Dimitriou, H.T. (2007) The Sustainability Vision: What it means for transport and sustainable development stakeholders, OMEGA Centre Guidance Note for UK White Paper, OMEGA Centre, Bartlett School of Planning, University College, London, January

Research Study Director

Prof. Harry T. Dimitriou

OMEGA Country Principal Investigators

Australia Prof. Nicholas Low

France Prof. Elisabeth Campagnac

Germany Prof. Gerhard Braun

Greece Prof. Pantelis Skayannis

Japan Prof. Yasunori Muromachi

Hong Kong Prof. Frederik Pretorius

Netherlands Prof. Willem Salet

Sweden Prof. Bengt Holmberg

UK Philip G. Wright

USA Prof. Charles M. Brecher

OMEGA Other Supporting Researchers

Australia Prof. Carey Curtis

Australia Sophie Sturup

France Stèphanie Leheis

France Geneviëve Zembri

Germany Markus Hesse

Greece George Kaparos

Japan

Hong Kong Prof. Mee Kam Ng

Netherlands Prof. Luca Bertolini

Netherlands Mendel Giezen

Sweden Jamil Khan

Sweden Fredrik Pettersson

UK David Snowden

USA Patrizia Nobbe

UCL OMEGA Team Research Fellows

Philip G. WrightDr. E. John Ward, Robert Gallagher

UCL OMEGA Team Research Assistants

Yen Ng Tseng
Varina Delrieu
June Taylor

UCL OMEGA Team Administrator

Richard S. Oades

Project funder

Volvo Research & Education Foundations (VREF), Gothenburg, Sweden

Research Grant

25 million SEK (2006-11)
5 million SEK (2012)

Research Duration

2006-12

Top