Paper titled Appraisal and Modelling Strategy – Informing Future Investment Decisions.

Omega Centre at Bartlett School of Planning UCL is pleased to share their response into a recent DfT Consultation Paper titled Appraisal and Modelling Strategy – Informing Future Investment Decisions.

There is much to welcome in the consultation paper. In particular, our research at the Omega centre has identified two overarching lessons from analysis of mega projects worldwide (see http://www.omegacentre.bartlett.ucl.ac.uk/research/), which appear to be reflected, at least in part, in the approach:

  • The contention that a different approach is needed for mega projects than for smaller infrastructure projects;
  • The finding that a pure CBA approach will typically underestimate certain non-monetised impacts, particularly with regard to some environmental, social and regeneration impacts. The concept of adjusted BCA is certainly a worthwhile acknowledgement of the general point here.
  • The acceptance of the degree of uncertainty about future transport technologies.

That said, there are, in our opinion,  some significant gaps:

  • No recognition of multi criteria approaches.
  • Insufficient attention in appraisal to policy objectives;
  • An apparent disconnect between appraisal and land use planning;
  • A lack of differentiation in appraisal of mega projects, despite the recognition of the need for such differentiation;
  • Excessive reliance on optimism bias.

There is also a conspicuous gap  with regard to treatment of climate change adaptation

The Consultation Paper and the Omega response is available in full on our website.

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